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Research ArticleORIGINAL RESEARCH

Development and Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Risk Scores for Prognosis in 6 US Health Systems

Mark H. Ebell, Xinyan Cai, Robert Lennon, Derjung M. Tarn, Arch G. Mainous, Aleksandra E. Zgierska, Bruce Barrett, Wen-Jan Tuan, Kevin Maloy, Munish Goyal and Alex Krist
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine February 2021, 34 (Supplement) S127-S135; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464
Mark H. Ebell
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD, MS
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Xinyan Cai
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MPH
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Robert Lennon
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD
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Derjung M. Tarn
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD, PhD
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Arch G. Mainous III
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
PhD
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Aleksandra E. Zgierska
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD, PhD
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Bruce Barrett
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD, PhD
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Wen-Jan Tuan
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
DHA, MS, MPH
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Kevin Maloy
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD
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Munish Goyal
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD
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Alex Krist
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
MD, MPH
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  • Article
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Article Information

vol. 34 no. Supplement S127-S135
DOI 
https://doi.org/10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464
PubMed 
33622827

Published By 
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine
Print ISSN 
1557-2625
Online ISSN 
1558-7118
History 
  • Received for publication September 4, 2020
  • Revision received October 19, 2020
  • Accepted for publication December 3, 2020
  • Published online February 23, 2021.

Copyright & Usage 
© Copyright 2021 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

Author Information

  1. Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS,
  2. Xinyan Cai, MPH,
  3. Robert Lennon, MD,
  4. Derjung M. Tarn, MD, PhD,
  5. Arch G. Mainous III, PhD,
  6. Aleksandra E. Zgierska, MD, PhD,
  7. Bruce Barrett, MD, PhD,
  8. Wen-Jan Tuan, DHA, MS, MPH,
  9. Kevin Maloy, MD,
  10. Munish Goyal, MD and
  11. Alex Krist, MD, MPH
  1. From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens (MHE, XC); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (RL); Department of Family Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, University of California, Los Angeles (DMT); Department of Health Services Research, Management and Policy, University of Florida, Gainesville (AGM); Departments of Public Health Sciences, and Anesthesiology and Perioperative Medicine, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey (AEZ); Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, University of Wisconsin, Madison (BB, WJT); Department of Emergency Medicine, MedStar Washington Hospital Center, Washington, DC (KM, MG); Department of Family Medicine, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond (AK).
  1. Corresponding author: Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, 125 BS Miller Hall, UGA Health Sciences Campus, Athens, GA 30602 (E-mail: ebell{at}uga.edu).
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The Journal of the American Board of Family  Medicine: 34 (Supplement)
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine
Vol. 34, Issue Supplement
February 2021
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Development and Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Risk Scores for Prognosis in 6 US Health Systems
Mark H. Ebell, Xinyan Cai, Robert Lennon, Derjung M. Tarn, Arch G. Mainous, Aleksandra E. Zgierska, Bruce Barrett, Wen-Jan Tuan, Kevin Maloy, Munish Goyal, Alex Krist
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Feb 2021, 34 (Supplement) S127-S135; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464

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Development and Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Risk Scores for Prognosis in 6 US Health Systems
Mark H. Ebell, Xinyan Cai, Robert Lennon, Derjung M. Tarn, Arch G. Mainous, Aleksandra E. Zgierska, Bruce Barrett, Wen-Jan Tuan, Kevin Maloy, Munish Goyal, Alex Krist
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Feb 2021, 34 (Supplement) S127-S135; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464
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    • Introduction
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    • Appendix 1. Full List of Requested Clinical Variables; Predictor Variables only Included if Ordered Within 24 Hours of Admission
    • Appendix 2. This Summarizes the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves and Calibration Plots for Each Model.
    • Appendix 3. Additional Model Using Clinical Variables and Complete Blood Count Only.
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