PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Mark H. Ebell
AU  - Xinyan Cai
AU  - Robert Lennon
AU  - Derjung M. Tarn
AU  - Arch G. Mainous III
AU  - Aleksandra E. Zgierska
AU  - Bruce Barrett
AU  - Wen-Jan Tuan
AU  - Kevin Maloy
AU  - Munish Goyal
AU  - Alex Krist
TI  - Development and Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Risk Scores for Prognosis in 6 US Health Systems
AID  - 10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464
DP  - 2021 Feb 01
TA  - The Journal of the American Board of Family
                Medicine
PG  - S127--S135
VI  - 34
IP  - Supplement
4099  - http://www.jabfm.org/content/34/Supplement/S127.short
4100  - http://www.jabfm.org/content/34/Supplement/S127.full
SO  - J Am Board Fam Med2021 Feb 01; 34
AB  - Purpose: Develop and validate simple risk scores based on initial clinical data and no or minimal laboratory testing to predict mortality in hospitalized adults with COVID-19.Methods: We gathered clinical and initial laboratory variables on consecutive inpatients with COVID-19 who had either died or been discharged alive at 6 US health centers. Logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model using no laboratory values (COVID-NoLab) and one adding tests available in many outpatient settings (COVID-SimpleLab). The models were converted to point scores and their accuracy evaluated in an internal validation group.Results: We identified 1340 adult inpatients with complete data for nonlaboratory parameters and 741 with complete data for white blood cell (WBC) count, differential, c-reactive protein (CRP), and serum creatinine. The COVID-NoLab risk score includes age, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation and identified risk groups with 0.8%, 11.4%, and 40.4% mortality in the validation group (AUROCC = 0.803). The COVID-SimpleLab score includes age, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, WBC, CRP, serum creatinine, and comorbid asthma and identified risk groups with 1.0%, 9.1%, and 29.3% mortality in the validation group (AUROCC = 0.833).Conclusions: Because they use simple, readily available predictors, developed risk scores have potential applicability in the outpatient setting but require prospective validation before use.