RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Development and Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Risk Scores for Prognosis in 6 US Health Systems
JF The Journal of the American Board of Family
                Medicine
JO J Am Board Fam Med
FD American Board of Family Medicine
SP S127
OP S135
DO 10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464
VO 34
IS Supplement
A1 Mark H. Ebell
A1 Xinyan Cai
A1 Robert Lennon
A1 Derjung M. Tarn
A1 Arch G. Mainous III
A1 Aleksandra E. Zgierska
A1 Bruce Barrett
A1 Wen-Jan Tuan
A1 Kevin Maloy
A1 Munish Goyal
A1 Alex Krist
YR 2021
UL http://www.jabfm.org/content/34/Supplement/S127.abstract
AB Purpose: Develop and validate simple risk scores based on initial clinical data and no or minimal laboratory testing to predict mortality in hospitalized adults with COVID-19.Methods: We gathered clinical and initial laboratory variables on consecutive inpatients with COVID-19 who had either died or been discharged alive at 6 US health centers. Logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model using no laboratory values (COVID-NoLab) and one adding tests available in many outpatient settings (COVID-SimpleLab). The models were converted to point scores and their accuracy evaluated in an internal validation group.Results: We identified 1340 adult inpatients with complete data for nonlaboratory parameters and 741 with complete data for white blood cell (WBC) count, differential, c-reactive protein (CRP), and serum creatinine. The COVID-NoLab risk score includes age, respiratory rate, and oxygen saturation and identified risk groups with 0.8%, 11.4%, and 40.4% mortality in the validation group (AUROCC = 0.803). The COVID-SimpleLab score includes age, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, WBC, CRP, serum creatinine, and comorbid asthma and identified risk groups with 1.0%, 9.1%, and 29.3% mortality in the validation group (AUROCC = 0.833).Conclusions: Because they use simple, readily available predictors, developed risk scores have potential applicability in the outpatient setting but require prospective validation before use.