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Research ArticleOriginal Research

Accountable Care Organizations Serving Deprived Communities Are Less Likely to Share in Savings

Alex R. Webb, Winston Liaw, YoonKyung Chung, Stephen Petterson and Andrew Bazemore
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine November 2019, 32 (6) 913-922; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3122/jabfm.2019.06.190004
Alex R. Webb
the Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC (ARW); University of Houston College of Medicine Department of Health Systems and Population Health Sciences, Houston, TX (WL); Robert Graham Center Washington, DC (YKC, SP); American Board of Family Medicine, Lexington, KY (AB).
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Winston Liaw
the Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC (ARW); University of Houston College of Medicine Department of Health Systems and Population Health Sciences, Houston, TX (WL); Robert Graham Center Washington, DC (YKC, SP); American Board of Family Medicine, Lexington, KY (AB).
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YoonKyung Chung
the Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC (ARW); University of Houston College of Medicine Department of Health Systems and Population Health Sciences, Houston, TX (WL); Robert Graham Center Washington, DC (YKC, SP); American Board of Family Medicine, Lexington, KY (AB).
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Stephen Petterson
the Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC (ARW); University of Houston College of Medicine Department of Health Systems and Population Health Sciences, Houston, TX (WL); Robert Graham Center Washington, DC (YKC, SP); American Board of Family Medicine, Lexington, KY (AB).
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Andrew Bazemore
the Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC (ARW); University of Houston College of Medicine Department of Health Systems and Population Health Sciences, Houston, TX (WL); Robert Graham Center Washington, DC (YKC, SP); American Board of Family Medicine, Lexington, KY (AB).
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  • Figure 1.
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    Figure 1.

    The Sample Savings Rate distributions for the bottom (Least Deprived) and top (Most Deprived) Social Deprivation Index Quartile Accountable Care Organization groups in 2014.

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    Figure 2.

    Ordinary Least Squares and Logistic Regression Results for Social Deprivation Index Quartiles.

Tables

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    Table 1.

    Comparison of Characteristics Between Accountable Care Organizations Serving the Least to Most Deprived Communities in 2014

    Quartile 1 (Least Deprived Service Area), Mean (SD)Quartile 2, Mean (SD)Quartile 3, Mean (SD)Quartile 4 (Most Deprived Service Area), Mean (SD)Diff. (Q1–Q4), P Value
    Savings rate (%)1.14 (4.65)−0.18 (4.46)−0.25 (5.42)1.19 (4.95)
    Shared in savings0.31 (0.47)0.23 (0.42)0.25 (0.44)0.23 (0.42)
    Organization characteristics
        Number of assigned beneficiaries22,245 (19518)18,552 (17667)14,864 (10962)9,714 (6782)<.01
        Entry year
            20120.36 (0.48)0.25 (0.44)0.39 (0.49)0.34 (0.48)
            20130.31 (0.47)0.36 (0.48)0.3 (0.46)0.24 (0.43)
            20140.33 (0.47)0.39 (0.49)0.31 (0.47)0.43 (0.5)
        Region
            Northeast0.34 (0.48)0.19 (0.39)0.15 (0.36)0.15 (0.36)<.01
            Midwest0.23 (0.42)0.23 (0.42)0.28 (0.45)0.10 (0.3)<.05
            South0.33 (0.47)0.4 (0.49)0.44 (0.5)0.58 (0.5)<.01
            West0.11 (0.32)0.19 (0.39)0.14 (0.35)0.18 (0.38)
        Track 20.00 (0.00)0.00 (0.00)0.01 (0.11)0.03 (0.16)
        Per capita historical benchmark ($)10,172 (2090)9,613 (1801)10,741 (2314)11,284 (3145)<.01
            Quartile 10.25 (0.44)0.36 (0.48)0.18 (0.38)0.21 (0.41)
            Quartile 20.24 (0.43)0.30 (0.46)0.26 (0.44)0.20 (0.40)
            Quartile 30.33 (0.47)0.21 (0.41)0.26 (0.44)0.20 (0.40)<.1
            Quartile 40.19 (0.39)0.13 (0.33)0.30 (0.46)0.39 (0.49)<.01
        % Primary care physicians42.26 (21.14)41.95 (20.32)40.57 (18.12)44.55 (21.1)
    Beneficiary characteristics
        % Age 85 and older13.1 (3.0)12.5 (3.2)12.6 (3.1)11.5 (4.1)<.01
        % Female57.5 (2.0)57.1 (2.0)57.6 (1.8)57.6 (2.6)
        % Aged duals4.0 (2.8)5.0 (4.0)6.3 (3.3)16.4 (15.2)<.01
        % White88.3 (8.2)88.9 (6.8)83.8 (11.1)67.8 (21.6)<.01
        % Disabled10.4 (3.7)13.0 (5.3)15.6 (4.4)20.4 (10.6)<.01
        HCC score1.0 (0.1)1.0 (0.1)1.1 (0.1)1.1 (0.1)<.05
    Service area characteristics
        Number of ZCTAs32.2 (19.4)32.7 (22.6)27.4 (24.3)33.9 (29.7)
        Social Deprivation index−0.70 (0.21)−0.26 (0.09)0.04 (0.08)0.53 (0.33)<.01
        % < 12 years of schooling8.5 (1.9)10.9 (1.9)13.6 (2.1)19.5 (6.6)<.01
        % Crowded housing units1.7 (0.8)2.1 (1.1)2.4 (1.3)4.9 (3.5)<.01
        % Households with no care5.9 (1.9)6.4 (1.9)8.0 (2.9)12.9 (12.9)<.01
        % < 100% FPL8.7 (2.4)12.5 (2.0)14.6 (2.1)19.9 (5.6)<.01
        % Renter occupied26.0 (5.2)31.3 (5.0)33.2 (5.0)39.9 (10.5)<.01
        % Single-parent households13.9 (2.7)16.6 (2.0)18.8 (2.3)21.4 (4.4)<.01
        N80808080
    • FPL, federal poverty level; HCC, Hierarchical Condition Category; SD, standard deviation; ZCTA, ZIP code tabulation area.

    • Sources: Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) were identified using the 2014 Shared Savings Program (SSP) ACO Provider File. Their beneficiaries were identified using the 2014 SSP Beneficiary File. The beneficiary ZIP codes were from the 2014 Master Beneficiary Summary File. ACO outcomes and characteristics were from the 2014 SSP ACO Public Use File. Service area characteristics were from the American Community Survey.

    • To generate the ACO service area, we summed the number of beneficiaries per ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA), rank ordered those ZCTAs from most to least, and identified those ZCTAs comprising 70%.

    • The social deprivation index (SDI) is a measure of social and material deprivation, constructed by combining a variety of established publicly available socioeconomic measures into a composite measure using a latent variable approach.

    • Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) risk score is the weighted mean HCC risk scores across eligibility categories—disabled, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), aged and dual eligible, and aged and non-dual eligible. The mean HCC score for each eligibility category was normalized such that the national average score was 1. For each ACO, we averaged across category–specific HCC scores using the assigned beneficiary share in that category as weights.

    • View popup
    Table 2.

    Associations Between 2014 Accountable Care Organization (ACO) Savings Rate and Beneficiary, ACO, and Service Area Characteristics

    UnadjustedAdjusted
    Coeff.CICoeff.CI
    Service Area Social Deprivation index
        Quartile 1 (least deprived)Reference categoryReference category
        Quartile 2−1.32[−2.74, 0.10]−1.06[−2.42, 0.31]
        Quartile 3−1.40[−2.97, 0.18]−2.68[−4.23, −1.14]
        Quartile 4 (most deprived)0.05[−1.44, 1.55]−2.29[−3.97, −0.61]
    Organization characteristics
        Number of assigned beneficiaries
            <10,000Reference category
            10,000∼29,999−0.55[−1.78, 0.69]
            ≥30,000−0.68[−2.23, 0.87]
        Entry Year
            2012Reference category
            2013−1.12[−2.41, 0.18]
            2014−1.85[−3.01, −0.69]
        Region
            NortheastReference category
            Midwest1.26[−0.22, 2.74]
            South2.44[0.76, 4.12]
            West−1.78[−3.62, 0.07]
        Track 24.43[2.29, 6.58]
        Historical benchmark in quartiles
            Quartile 1Reference category
            Quartile 21.27[−0.06, 2.6]
            Quartile 33.31[1.81, 4.81]
            Quartile 45.07[2.96, 7.17]
        % PCP0.00[−0.03, 0.03]
    Beneficiary characteristics
        % Aged 85 and older−0.26[−0.51, 0.00]
        % Female0.11[−0.18, 0.41]
        % White0.03[−0.03, 0.08]
        % Aged dual eligibles0.05[−0.02, 0.13]
        % Disabled0.08[−0.01, 0.17]
        HCC score−2.95[−13.09, 7.19]
        N320
    • CI, confidence interval; HCC, Hierarchical Condition Category; PCP, primary care physician.

    • Sources: Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) were identified using the 2014 Shared Savings Program (SSP) ACO Provider File. Their beneficiaries were identified using the 2014 SSP Beneficiary File. The beneficiary ZIP codes were from the 2014 Master Beneficiary Summary File. ACO savings rate and characteristics were from the 2014 SSP ACO Public Use File. Service area characteristics were from the American Community Survey.

    • To generate the ACO service area, we summed the number of beneficiaries per ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA), rank ordered those ZCTAs from most to least, and identified those ZCTAs comprising 70%.

    • The social deprivation index (SDI) is a measure of social and material deprivation, constructed by combining a variety of established publicly available socioeconomic measures into a composite measure using a latent variable approach. We conducted regression where the savings rate was the dependent variable.

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The Journal of the American Board of Family     Medicine: 32 (6)
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine
Vol. 32, Issue 6
November-December 2019
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Accountable Care Organizations Serving Deprived Communities Are Less Likely to Share in Savings
Alex R. Webb, Winston Liaw, YoonKyung Chung, Stephen Petterson, Andrew Bazemore
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Nov 2019, 32 (6) 913-922; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2019.06.190004

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Accountable Care Organizations Serving Deprived Communities Are Less Likely to Share in Savings
Alex R. Webb, Winston Liaw, YoonKyung Chung, Stephen Petterson, Andrew Bazemore
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Nov 2019, 32 (6) 913-922; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2019.06.190004
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