Article Figures & Data
Figures
- Figure 1.
Ten- and 20-year United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model and Diabetes Personal Health Decisions (PHD) outcome model predictions of myocardial infarction for white women.
Tables
- Table 1.
Case Characteristics for the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study and Diabetes Personal Health Decision Models
Characteristics UKPDS Diabetes PHD Baseline Age (years) 60 60 Sex Male and female Male and female Race/ethnicity White Non-Hispanic white Age at diagnosis of diabetes (years) 50 50 Weight 100 kg 220 lb Height 1.75 m 5′ 9″ Total/HDL cholesterol 6/1 mmol/L 232/39 mg/dL (LDL estimated at ∼165 mg/dL by program) Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) 160 160 (diastolic unknown) Glycosylated hemoglobin (%) 9 9 Smoker Yes Yes Complications or pre-existing conditions None None Other factors Risk factors at diagnosis equal to current levels No medications; asymptomatic with unknown blood glucose level at diagnosis; sedentary; no family history of diabetes; started smoking at age 18; sedentary; sees doctor at least twice a year for checkups but no regular foot or eye exams Varied Cholesterol Total/HDL: 4/1 mmol/L LDL: 96 mg/dL Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) 130 130 Glycosylated hemoglobin (%) 7 7 Smoker Ex-smoker Stopped Weight 80 kg 176 lb Race/ethnicity Afro-Caribbean, Asian-Indian Black, Asian, Hispanic UKPDS, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study; PHD, personal health decisions; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein.
- Table 2.
Comparison of Predicted Probabilities from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model and Diabetes Personal Health Decision Model
Case Estimated Probability of Outcome Over the Subsequent 10 Years MI Stroke Amputation Blindness Renal failure UKPDS (95% CI) PHD UKPDS (95% CI) PHD UKPDS (95% CI) PHD UKPDS (95% CI) PHD UKPDS (95% CI) PHD Male White base case 0.35 (0.28–0.42) * 0.43 0.12 (0.06–0.17) * 0.21 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Lower cholesterol 0.25 (0.19–0.30) * 0.37 0.11 (0.06–0.16) * 0.21 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.00–0.04) > * 0.00 Lower BP 0.28 (0.23–0.33) * 0.38 0.06 (0.04–0.09) < * 0.13 0.02 (0.01–0.03) > 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.01 (0.00–0.02) > * 0.00 Lower HbA1c 0.28 (0.22–0.34) * 0.41 0.10 (0.05–0.14) * 0.18 0.01 (0.00–0.02) > 0.01 0.02 (0.01–0.02) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.00–0.04) > * 0.00 Quit smoking 0.27 (0.22–0.32) 0.29 0.09 (0.05–0.13) * 0.13 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Lose weight 0.34 (0.28–0.41) 0.35 0.12 (0.06–0.17) 0.14 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Afro-Caribbean/black† 0.12 (0.04–0.19) < * 0.41 0.13 (0.07–0.19) * 0.20 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Asian-Indian/Asian† 0.35 (0.28–0.41) * 0.45 0.12 (0.06–0.17) * 0.20 0.03 (0.01–0.04) > 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.00–0.04) > 0.01 Latino — 0.42 — 0.21 — 0.01 — 0.01 — 0.01 Female White base case 0.18 (0.13–0.23) * 0.36 0.08 (0.04–0.12) < * 0.20 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Lower cholesterol 0.11 (0.08–0.15) < * 0.28 0.06 (0.03–0.10) < * 0.20 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Lower BP 0.13 (0.09–0.16) * 0.26 0.04 (0.02–0.06) < * 0.1 0.02 (0.01–0.03) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.02–0.05) > * 0.00 0.01 (0.00–0.02) > 0.00 Lower HbA1c 0.14 (0.10–0.18) < * 0.31 0.06 (0.03–0.10) < * 0.15 0.01 (0.01–0.02) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.01–0.03) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Quit smoking 0.14 (0.10–0.17) * 0.23 0.06 (0.04–0.09) < * 0.12 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.00–0.04) > * 0.00 Lose weight 0.17 (0.13–0.22) * 0.26 0.08 (0.04–0.12) * 0.13 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.02 (0.00–0.04) > * 0.00 Afro-Caribbean/black† 0.05 (0.01–0.08) < * 0.30 0.09 (0.04–0.13) * 0.17 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.01 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 Asian-Indian/Asian† 0.17 (0.13–0.22) * 0.34 0.08 (0.04–0.12) < * 0.22 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > 0.01 Latina — 0.33 — 0.16 — 0.01 — 0.01 — 0.01 Estimated Probability of Outcome Over the Subsequent 20 Years Male White base case 0.52 (0.43–0.61) * 0.70 0.19 (0.10–0.27) < * 0.46 0.05 (0.01–0.08) > 0.02 0.04 (0.02–0.06) > * 0.02 0.04 (0.00–0.08) < * 0.14 Lower cholesterol 0.38 (0.30–0.47) * 0.66 0.18 (0.09–0.26) < * 0.49 0.05 (0.01–0.09) > * 0.01 0.05 (0.03–0.06) > * 0.01 0.04 (0.00–0.08) < * 0.12 Lower BP 0.43 (0.35–0.51) * 0.65 0.10 (0.06–0.15) < * 0.35 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > 0.02 0.04 (0.02–0.06) > * 0.01 0.02 (0.00–0.03) < 0.03 Lower HbA1c 0.44 (0.35–0.52) * 0.69 0.16 (0.09–0.24) < * 0.44 0.02 (0.00–0.04) > 0.01 0.03 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.01 0.04 (0.00–0.08) > * 0.00 Quit smoking 0.44 (0.37–0.52) * 0.54 0.16 (0.09–0.22) < * 0.36 0.05 (0.02–0.09) > * 0.01 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.02 0.05 (0.00–0.09) < * 0.14 Lose weight 0.51 (0.42–0.60) * 0.66 0.18 (0.10–0.27) < * 0.38 0.05 (0.01–0.08) > 0.01 0.04 (0.02–0.06) > * 0.02 0.04 (0.00–0.08) > 0.01 Afro-Caribbean/black† 0.21 (0.09–0.33) < * 0.67 0.22 (0.12–0.32) < * 0.45 0.05 (0.01–0.09) > 0.02 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.01 0.04 (0.00–0.09) < * 0.14 Asian-Indian/Asian† 0.52 (0.43–0.61) * 0.71 0.19 (0.10–0.28) < * 0.48 0.04 (0.01–0.08) > 0.02 0.04 (0.02–0.06) > * 0.01 0.04 (0.00–0.08) < * 0.24 Latino — 0.72 — 0.48 — 0.01 — 0.02 — 0.12 Female White base case 0.29 (0.21–0.37) < * 0.60 0.14 (0.07–0.21) < * 0.46 0.05 (0.01–0.09) > 0.02 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.00 0.04 (0.00–0.08) < * 0.17 Lower cholesterol 0.19 (0.13–0.25) < * 0.52 0.12 (0.05–0.18) < * 0.46 0.05 (0.01–0.09) > * 0.00 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.00 0.05 (0.00–0.09) < * 0.14 Lower BP 0.22 (0.16–0.28) < * 0.49 0.07 (0.03–0.10) < * 0.31 0.03 (0.01–0.05) > * 0.00 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.00 0.01 (0.00–0.04) < 0.03 Lower HbA1c 0.23 (0.16–0.30) < * 0.56 0.11 (0.05–0.17) < * 0.39 0.02 (0.01–0.04) > * 0.00 0.03 (0.02–0.04) > * 0.00 0.05 (0.00–0.09) > 0.00 Quit smoking 0.24 (0.18–0.30) * 0.44 0.11 (0.07–0.16) < * 0.35 0.06 (0.02–0.10) > * 0.01 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.00 0.05 (0.00–0.09) < * 0.15 Lose weight 0.28 (0.21–0.36) * 0.48 0.13 (0.06–0.20) < * 0.38 0.05 (0.02–0.09) > * 0.01 0.04 (0.02–0.06) > * 0.00 0.04 (0.00–0.08) > 0.00 Afro-Caribbean/black† 0.09 (0.03–0.16) < * 0.56 0.15 (0.07–0.23) < * 0.44 0.05 (0.01–0.09) > 0.02 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.02 0.05 (0.00–0.09) < * 0.12 Asian-Indian/Asian† 0.28 (0.21–0.36) < * 0.62 0.14 (0.07–0.21) < * 0.52 0.05 (0.02–0.09) > * 0.00 0.05 (0.03–0.07) > * 0.02 0.05 (0.00–0.09) < * 0.31 Latina — 0.61 — 0.47 — 0.02 — 0.02 — 0.17 Differences between smaller and larger predictions of at least 100% are flagged with < or > to show the direction of the difference. Diabetes PHD predictions were obtained on April 10, 2010 and July 8, 2010.
* Diabetes PHD prediction lies outside the 95% CI produced by the UKPDS outcomes model.
† First labels (Afro-Caribbean and Asian-Indian) apply to UKPDS columns and second labels (black and Asian) apply to Diabetes PHD columns. Note that these populations are different, but persons in the United States or the United Kingdom attempting to use the model developed in the other country might be tempted to use the comparison group under the assumption that they should be comparable.
UKPDS, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study outcome model; PHD, Personal Health Decision outcome model; MI, myocardial infarction; BP, blood pressure; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin.
