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Research ArticleResearch Letter

Prospective Validation of a Simple Risk Score to Predict Hospitalization during the Omicron Phase of COVID-19

Mark H. Ebell, Roya Hamadani and Autumn Kieber-Emmons
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine March 2024, 37 (2) 324-327; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3122/jabfm.2023.230208R1
Mark H. Ebell
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA (MHE); University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine and Lehigh Valley Health Network, Allentown, PA (RH, AKE).
MD, MS
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Roya Hamadani
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA (MHE); University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine and Lehigh Valley Health Network, Allentown, PA (RH, AKE).
MPH
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Autumn Kieber-Emmons
From the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA (MHE); University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine and Lehigh Valley Health Network, Allentown, PA (RH, AKE).
MD, MPH
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    Appendix Figure 1.

    Receiver operating characteristic curve for the prospective validation population of 19,262 patients.

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    Table 1.

    Prospective Validation of the LOCH Risk Score, Including Stratification by Vaccination Status. For the Stratified Analysis, Proposed Low (Green), Moderate (Blue), and High Risk (Red) Groups Are Shown

    Risk Group (Points)HospitalizedNot Hospitalized% (95% CI)
    All patients
     Low risk (0)884300.09% (0.03% to 0.16%)
     Moderate risk (1 to 2.5)8187860.91% (0.72% to 1.11%)
     High risk (3+)10520464.88% (3.97% to 5.79%)
     Total19419,2621.00% (0.86% to 1.14%)
    Vaccinated patients
     Low risk (0)231360.06% (0.0% to 0.15%)
     Moderate risk (1 to 2.5)1348090.27% (0.12% to 0.42%)
     High risk (3+)5415233.42% (2.53% to 4.32%)
     Total6994680.72% (0.55% to 0.89%)
    Unvaccinated patients
     Low risk (0)652940.11% (0.02% to 0.20%)
     Moderate risk (1 to 2.5)6839771.68% (1.28% to 2.08%)
     High risk (3+)515238.89% (6.56% to 11.21%)
     Total12597941.26% (1.04% to 1.48%)
    • Note. For the stratified analysis, proposed Low (Green), Moderate (Blue), and High Risk (Red) groups are shown.

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The Journal of the American Board of Family     Medicine: 37 (2)
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine
Vol. 37, Issue 2
March-April 2024
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Prospective Validation of a Simple Risk Score to Predict Hospitalization during the Omicron Phase of COVID-19
Mark H. Ebell, Roya Hamadani, Autumn Kieber-Emmons
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Mar 2024, 37 (2) 324-327; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2023.230208R1

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Prospective Validation of a Simple Risk Score to Predict Hospitalization during the Omicron Phase of COVID-19
Mark H. Ebell, Roya Hamadani, Autumn Kieber-Emmons
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Mar 2024, 37 (2) 324-327; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2023.230208R1
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Keywords

  • Risk Score
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  • SARS-CoV-2
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  • Prognosis
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