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Research ArticleSpecial Communications

How Evolving United States Payment Models Influence Primary Care and Its Impact on the Quadruple Aim

Brian Park, Stephanie B. Gold, Andrew Bazemore and Winston Liaw
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine July 2018, 31 (4) 588-604; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3122/jabfm.2018.04.170388
Brian Park
From the Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR (BP); Eugene S. Farley, Jr. Health Policy Center, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Denver, CO (SBG); Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care, Washington, D.C. (AB, WL).
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Stephanie B. Gold
From the Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR (BP); Eugene S. Farley, Jr. Health Policy Center, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Denver, CO (SBG); Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care, Washington, D.C. (AB, WL).
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Andrew Bazemore
From the Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR (BP); Eugene S. Farley, Jr. Health Policy Center, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Denver, CO (SBG); Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care, Washington, D.C. (AB, WL).
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Winston Liaw
From the Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR (BP); Eugene S. Farley, Jr. Health Policy Center, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Denver, CO (SBG); Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care, Washington, D.C. (AB, WL).
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    Figure 1.

    The 4 Cs of Primary Care.

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    Table 1.

    Scheduled Adjustments in APM Eligibility Criteria under Medicare Access and Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act

    YearEligibility
    2019 and 2020≥25% of total Medicare revenue is from a qualified, eligible APM
    2021 and 2022≥50% of total Medicare revenue OR
    ≥25% of total Medicare revenue and 50% of all-payer revenue (eg, Medicaid, private insurers) is from a qualified, eligible APM
    2023 and beyond≥75% of total Medicare revenue OR
    ≥25% of total Medicare revenue and 75% of all-payer revenue is from a qualified, eligible APM
    • APM, alternative payment model; OR, odd ratio.

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    Table 2.

    Scheduled Payment Adjustments in Merit-Based Incentive Payment System

    Adjustment2019202020212022 and beyond
    Baseline payment adjustment±4%±5%±7%±9%
    Maximum payment adjustment for high performers+12%+15%+21%+27%
    • View popup
    Table 3.

    Overview of Primary Care Payment Models

    DescriptionProspective vs retrospectiveFinancially discourages volume of services?Financially encourages high quality of care?Party that primarily bears the financial risk?Risk adjusts for patient complexity?Key Example
    Fee-for-service (FFS)Paid for each individual service renderedRetrospectiveNoNoInsurersNoMedicare
    Patients (via cost-sharing: co-pays, deductibles)
    Traditional capitation (full-risk capitation, global payment)Paid to cover all services within a specific period of timeProspectiveYesNo, except for outcomes related to usePrimary care practicesNoMedicare Advantage HMOs
    Pay-for-performance (P4P) exists in addition to underlying model (generally FFS or capitation)Paid for achievement of (or improvement in) a quality measureBoth exist (most models retrospectively; however, can be paid prospectively and subsequently reconciled)Potentially (depends on quality metrics)Yes, for services being measured via quality metricDepends on underlying payment modelPotentiallyMedicare Physician Group Practice Demonstration Project
    Primary care practices, if targets not met
    Bundled payment (episode-of-care)Paid for all services rendered for a given episode of careMixed (generally retrospectively triggered and prospectively paid)Yes (but does not discourage volume of episodes)No, except for outcomes related to utilizationPrimary care practices, organizationsNoCMMI's Bundled Payments for Care Improvement
    Shared savingsPaid based on spending below a predetermined benchmark over a period of time (contingent on meeting certain quality targets)Mixed (prospective at level of the ACO, but providers often still paid via FFS)YesYesACOsPotentiallyMedicare Shared Savings Program ACOs
    Blended FFS and capitationPaid a predetermined amount intended to cover medical home services for a specific period of time in addition to FFSMixedNo (to the extent that FFS is the predominant payment mechanism)NoDepends on underlying payment modelPotentiallyMedicare Comprehensive Primary Care Initiative
    Comprehensive (primary) care paymentPaid a risk-adjusted amount to cover all primary care services for a specific period of time; includes component of P4PProspectiveYesYesPrimary care practicesYesIora Health
    Direct primary carePaid outside of third-party insurers (often directly from patients) a predetermined amount to cover all primary care services for a specific period of timeProspectiveYesNoPrimary care practices for primary care expensesNoQliance
    Patients for other aspects of care (and insurers if patients have third party insurance)
    • ACO, accountable care organization; HMO, health maintenance organization; CMMI, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation.

    • View popup
    Table 4.

    Impact of Primary Care Payment Models on the Quadruple Aim and Tenets of Primary Care

    Payment ModelQuadruple AimAllows Proactive Investment in Primary CareThe 4 Cs of Primary CareElements Associated with Successful Programs
    Health OutcomesExperience of CareCost ControlProvider SatisfactionContact (Access)ContinuityCoordinationComprehensiveness
    Fee-for-service (FFS)↓↓↓↓˟↓←→↓↑↓*Billing mechanisms available that recognize primary care tenets and non-face-to-face services
    Traditional (full-risk) capitation←→Mostly ↓Mostly ↑↓✔↓Insuff. evidenceInsuff. evidence↑↓Risk limited to primary care services
    PMPM determination based on anticipated need rather than FFS*
    Pay-for-performance (P4P)↓↑↓↑↓↑↓˟↓↑↓←→↓Appropriate, aligned measures for use in primary care*
    Bundled payment (episode-of-care)←→ (weak)Insuff. evidenceInsuff. evidenceInsuff. evidence✔/˟ (retroactively triggered)Insuff. evidenceInsuff. evidence↑ (weak)Insuff. evidenceN/A, may not apply to primary care given difficulty defining and assigning bundles
    Shared savings↑↑↓↑Insuff. evidence✔/˟ (providers often paid FFS)Insuff. evidenceInsuff. evidence↑*Insuff. evidenceTarget high-needs patients
    Address psychosocial needs
    Appropriate risk-adjustment
    Non-FFS incentives at provider level*
    Physician-led or integrated ACO
    Blended FFS and capitation↓↑↓↑↓↑Insuff. evidence✔/˟↑↑↑Insuff. evidenceTarget high-needs patients
    Appropriate risk-adjustment
    Multipayer alignment
    Real-time data sharing
    Optimal FFS/capitation blend (more research needed)
    Comprehen-sive primary care payment↑ (weak)↑ (weak)↑ (weak)↑ (weak)✔↑ (weak)Insuff. EvidenceInsuff. evidence↑ (weak)Appropriate risk adjustment
    Payments based on 10% total cost of care rather than prior FFS
    Direct primary careInsuff. evidence↑ (weak)↑ (weak)↑ (weak)✔↓↑* (better indiv. access, but affordability and workforce concerns)Insuff. evidenceInsuff. evidenceInsuff. evidenceCoupling with appropriate wraparound insurance to avoid high patient costs for non-primary care services*
    • ↑, evidence of positive outcomes.

    • ↓, evidence of negative outcomes.

    • ↓↑, evidence of mixed effects.

    • ←→, no significant effect or change.

    • ✔, allows proactive investment in primary care.

    • ˟, does not allow proactive investment in primary care.

    • ✔/˟, some components allow proactive investment in primary care, while others do not.

    • Insuff. evidence, no available evidence; (weak), limited or poor quality evidence (ie, <1 study examined and/or not a comparison study).

    • ↵* No or limited evidence, but a strong theoretical likelihood of effect.

    • Proactive investment in primary care can support all of the 4 Cs.

    • ACO, accountable care organization; PMPM, per member per month.

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The Journal of the American Board of Family     Medicine: 31 (4)
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine
Vol. 31, Issue 4
July-August 2018
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How Evolving United States Payment Models Influence Primary Care and Its Impact on the Quadruple Aim
Brian Park, Stephanie B. Gold, Andrew Bazemore, Winston Liaw
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Jul 2018, 31 (4) 588-604; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2018.04.170388

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How Evolving United States Payment Models Influence Primary Care and Its Impact on the Quadruple Aim
Brian Park, Stephanie B. Gold, Andrew Bazemore, Winston Liaw
The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine Jul 2018, 31 (4) 588-604; DOI: 10.3122/jabfm.2018.04.170388
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