Background: Collaborative care management (CCM) is effective for improving depression outcomes. However, a subset of patients will still have symptoms after 6 months. This study sought to determine whether routinely obtained baseline clinical, demographic, and self-assessment variables would predict which patients endorse persistent depressive symptoms (PDS) after 6 months. By estimating the relative risk associated with the patient variables, we aimed to outline the combinations of factors predictive of PDS after CCM enrollment.
Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 1,110 adult primary care patients with the diagnosis of major depressive disorder enrolled in a CCM program and evaluated those with PDS (defined as patient health questionnaire-9score ≥10) 6 months after enrollment.
Results: At baseline, an increased depression severity, worsening symptoms of generalized anxiety, an abnormal screening on the mood disorder questionnaire (MDQ) and the diagnosis of recurrent episode of depression were independent predictors of PDS. A patient with severe, recurrent depression, an abnormal MDQ screen, and severe anxiety at baseline had a predicted 42.1% probability of PDS at 6 months. In contrast, a patient with a moderate, first episode of depression, normal MDQ screen, and no anxiety symptoms had a low probability of PDS at 6.6%.
Conclusions: This study identified several patient self-assessment scores and clinical diagnosis that markedly predicted the probability of PDS 6 months after diagnosis and enrollment into CCM. Knowledge of these high-risk attributes should alert the clinician to monitor select patients more closely and consider altering therapy appropriately.
© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.