Comparison of Predicted Probabilities from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model and Diabetes Personal Health Decision Model
| Case | Estimated Probability of Outcome Over the Subsequent 10 Years | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI | Stroke | Amputation | Blindness | Renal failure | ||||||||||||||||
| UKPDS (95% CI) | PHD | UKPDS (95% CI) | PHD | UKPDS (95% CI) | PHD | UKPDS (95% CI) | PHD | UKPDS (95% CI) | PHD | |||||||||||
| Male | ||||||||||||||||||||
| White base case | 0.35 (0.28–0.42) | * | 0.43 | 0.12 (0.06–0.17) | * | 0.21 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | ||
| Lower cholesterol | 0.25 (0.19–0.30) | * | 0.37 | 0.11 (0.06–0.16) | * | 0.21 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.00–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | ||
| Lower BP | 0.28 (0.23–0.33) | * | 0.38 | 0.06 (0.04–0.09) | < | * | 0.13 | 0.02 (0.01–0.03) | > | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.01 (0.00–0.02) | > | * | 0.00 | ||
| Lower HbA1c | 0.28 (0.22–0.34) | * | 0.41 | 0.10 (0.05–0.14) | * | 0.18 | 0.01 (0.00–0.02) | > | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.01–0.02) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.00–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | |||
| Quit smoking | 0.27 (0.22–0.32) | 0.29 | 0.09 (0.05–0.13) | * | 0.13 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | |||
| Lose weight | 0.34 (0.28–0.41) | 0.35 | 0.12 (0.06–0.17) | 0.14 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | ||||
| Afro-Caribbean/black† | 0.12 (0.04–0.19) | < | * | 0.41 | 0.13 (0.07–0.19) | * | 0.20 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | |
| Asian-Indian/Asian† | 0.35 (0.28–0.41) | * | 0.45 | 0.12 (0.06–0.17) | * | 0.20 | 0.03 (0.01–0.04) | > | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.00–0.04) | > | 0.01 | ||||
| Latino | — | 0.42 | — | 0.21 | — | 0.01 | — | 0.01 | — | 0.01 | ||||||||||
| Female | ||||||||||||||||||||
| White base case | 0.18 (0.13–0.23) | * | 0.36 | 0.08 (0.04–0.12) | < | * | 0.20 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | |
| Lower cholesterol | 0.11 (0.08–0.15) | < | * | 0.28 | 0.06 (0.03–0.10) | < | * | 0.20 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 |
| Lower BP | 0.13 (0.09–0.16) | * | 0.26 | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | < | * | 0.1 | 0.02 (0.01–0.03) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.02–0.05) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.01 (0.00–0.02) | > | 0.00 | ||
| Lower HbA1c | 0.14 (0.10–0.18) | < | * | 0.31 | 0.06 (0.03–0.10) | < | * | 0.15 | 0.01 (0.01–0.02) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.01–0.03) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 |
| Quit smoking | 0.14 (0.10–0.17) | * | 0.23 | 0.06 (0.04–0.09) | < | * | 0.12 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.00–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | |
| Lose weight | 0.17 (0.13–0.22) | * | 0.26 | 0.08 (0.04–0.12) | * | 0.13 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.02 (0.00–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | ||
| Afro-Caribbean/black† | 0.05 (0.01–0.08) | < | * | 0.30 | 0.09 (0.04–0.13) | * | 0.17 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | |
| Asian-Indian/Asian† | 0.17 (0.13–0.22) | * | 0.34 | 0.08 (0.04–0.12) | < | * | 0.22 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | 0.01 | ||
| Latina | — | 0.33 | — | 0.16 | — | 0.01 | — | 0.01 | — | 0.01 | ||||||||||
| Estimated Probability of Outcome Over the Subsequent 20 Years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Male | ||||||||||||||||||||
| White base case | 0.52 (0.43–0.61) | * | 0.70 | 0.19 (0.10–0.27) | < | * | 0.46 | 0.05 (0.01–0.08) | > | 0.02 | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | > | * | 0.02 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | < | * | 0.14 | ||
| Lower cholesterol | 0.38 (0.30–0.47) | * | 0.66 | 0.18 (0.09–0.26) | < | * | 0.49 | 0.05 (0.01–0.09) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.05 (0.03–0.06) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | < | * | 0.12 | |
| Lower BP | 0.43 (0.35–0.51) | * | 0.65 | 0.10 (0.06–0.15) | < | * | 0.35 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | 0.02 | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.02 (0.00–0.03) | < | 0.03 | |||
| Lower HbA1c | 0.44 (0.35–0.52) | * | 0.69 | 0.16 (0.09–0.24) | < | * | 0.44 | 0.02 (0.00–0.04) | > | 0.01 | 0.03 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | > | * | 0.00 | ||
| Quit smoking | 0.44 (0.37–0.52) | * | 0.54 | 0.16 (0.09–0.22) | < | * | 0.36 | 0.05 (0.02–0.09) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.02 | 0.05 (0.00–0.09) | < | * | 0.14 | |
| Lose weight | 0.51 (0.42–0.60) | * | 0.66 | 0.18 (0.10–0.27) | < | * | 0.38 | 0.05 (0.01–0.08) | > | 0.01 | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | > | * | 0.02 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | > | 0.01 | |||
| Afro-Caribbean/black† | 0.21 (0.09–0.33) | < | * | 0.67 | 0.22 (0.12–0.32) | < | * | 0.45 | 0.05 (0.01–0.09) | > | 0.02 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.04 (0.00–0.09) | < | * | 0.14 | |
| Asian-Indian/Asian† | 0.52 (0.43–0.61) | * | 0.71 | 0.19 (0.10–0.28) | < | * | 0.48 | 0.04 (0.01–0.08) | > | 0.02 | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | < | * | 0.24 | ||
| Latino | — | 0.72 | — | 0.48 | — | 0.01 | — | 0.02 | — | 0.12 | ||||||||||
| Female | ||||||||||||||||||||
| White base case | 0.29 (0.21–0.37) | < | * | 0.60 | 0.14 (0.07–0.21) | < | * | 0.46 | 0.05 (0.01–0.09) | > | 0.02 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | < | * | 0.17 | |
| Lower cholesterol | 0.19 (0.13–0.25) | < | * | 0.52 | 0.12 (0.05–0.18) | < | * | 0.46 | 0.05 (0.01–0.09) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.05 (0.00–0.09) | < | * | 0.14 |
| Lower BP | 0.22 (0.16–0.28) | < | * | 0.49 | 0.07 (0.03–0.10) | < | * | 0.31 | 0.03 (0.01–0.05) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.01 (0.00–0.04) | < | 0.03 | |
| Lower HbA1c | 0.23 (0.16–0.30) | < | * | 0.56 | 0.11 (0.05–0.17) | < | * | 0.39 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.03 (0.02–0.04) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.05 (0.00–0.09) | > | 0.00 | |
| Quit smoking | 0.24 (0.18–0.30) | * | 0.44 | 0.11 (0.07–0.16) | < | * | 0.35 | 0.06 (0.02–0.10) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.05 (0.00–0.09) | < | * | 0.15 | |
| Lose weight | 0.28 (0.21–0.36) | * | 0.48 | 0.13 (0.06–0.20) | < | * | 0.38 | 0.05 (0.02–0.09) | > | * | 0.01 | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.04 (0.00–0.08) | > | 0.00 | ||
| Afro-Caribbean/black† | 0.09 (0.03–0.16) | < | * | 0.56 | 0.15 (0.07–0.23) | < | * | 0.44 | 0.05 (0.01–0.09) | > | 0.02 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.02 | 0.05 (0.00–0.09) | < | * | 0.12 | |
| Asian-Indian/Asian† | 0.28 (0.21–0.36) | < | * | 0.62 | 0.14 (0.07–0.21) | < | * | 0.52 | 0.05 (0.02–0.09) | > | * | 0.00 | 0.05 (0.03–0.07) | > | * | 0.02 | 0.05 (0.00–0.09) | < | * | 0.31 |
| Latina | — | 0.61 | — | 0.47 | — | 0.02 | — | 0.02 | — | 0.17 | ||||||||||
Differences between smaller and larger predictions of at least 100% are flagged with < or > to show the direction of the difference. Diabetes PHD predictions were obtained on April 10, 2010 and July 8, 2010.
* Diabetes PHD prediction lies outside the 95% CI produced by the UKPDS outcomes model.
† First labels (Afro-Caribbean and Asian-Indian) apply to UKPDS columns and second labels (black and Asian) apply to Diabetes PHD columns. Note that these populations are different, but persons in the United States or the United Kingdom attempting to use the model developed in the other country might be tempted to use the comparison group under the assumption that they should be comparable.
UKPDS, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study outcome model; PHD, Personal Health Decision outcome model; MI, myocardial infarction; BP, blood pressure; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin.