Regression Model of 2019 Total Allowed Patient Costs with 3-way Interactions
| Variable | Modeled Coefficients | Implied Percent Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 8.5760 (8.5572, 8.5949) | $5303.11 ($5204.00, $5404.11) | ||
| Age | ||||
| Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | 0.0039 (0.0018, 0.0061) | 0.4% (0.2%, 0.6%) | ||
| Gender | ||||
| Woman | 0.0968 (0.0939, 0.0996) | 10.2% (9.8%, 10.5%) | ||
| Man | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | ||
| SDI | ||||
| 75+ | 0.0035 (−0.0015, 0.0085) | 0.3% (−0.1%, 0.8%) | ||
| 1 to 74 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | ||
| Rurality (From RUCA) | ||||
| Isolated small rural town | 0.0155 (0.0047, 0.0264) | 1.6% (0.5%, 2.7%) | ||
| Large rural city/town | 0.0053 (−0.0056, 0.0162) | 0.5% (−0.6%, 1.6%) | ||
| Small rural town | 0.0179 (0.0083, 0.0276) | 1.8% (0.8%, 2.8%) | ||
| Urban | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | ||
| Payer | ||||
| Medicare | −0.4286 (−0.4368, −0.4203) | −34.9% (−35.4%, −34.3%) | ||
| Medicaid | −0.2960 (−0.3038, −0.2881) | −25.6% (−26.2%, −25.0%) | ||
| Commercial | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | ||
| CCI (log) | ||||
| Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0887 (0.0869, 0.0905) | 9.3% (9.1%, 9.5%) | ||
| MARA (log) | ||||
| Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.2525 (0.2517, 0.2533) | 28.7% (28.6%, 28.8%) | ||
| PCP Specialty | ||||
| Internal medicine | 0.0270 (−0.0058, 0.0598) | 2.7% (−0.6%, 6.2%) | ||
| Pediatric medicine | 0.1505 (0.1133, 0.1876) | 16.2% (12.0%, 20.6%) | ||
| Family medicine | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | ||
| BB-COC-PC of attributed PCP | ||||
| Percentile 40 to 60 | 0.1293 (0.0966, 0.1620) | 13.8% (10.1%, 17.6%) | ||
| Percentile 60 to 80 | 0.1642 (0.1296, 0.1989) | 17.9% (13.8%, 22.0%) | ||
| Percentile 80 to 100 | 0.1612 (0.1234, 0.1991) | 17.5% (13.1%, 22.0%) | ||
| Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | ||
| Specialty * Age | ||||
| Internal medicine | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | −0.0205 (−0.0242, −0.0167) | −2.0% (−2.4%, −1.7%) | |
| Pediatric medicine | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | 0.0858 (0.0799, 0.0916) | 9.0% (8.3%, 9.6%) | |
| Family medicine | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| MARA * Speciality | ||||
| Internal medicine | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0098 (0.0082, 0.0115) | 1.0% (0.8%, 1.2%) | |
| Pediatric medicine | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0300 (−0.0313, −0.0287) | −3.0% (−3.1%, −2.8%) | |
| Family medicine | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| CCI * Speciality | ||||
| Internal medicine | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0020 (−0.0012, 0.0052) | 0.2% (−0.1%, 0.5%) | |
| Pediatric medicine | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0003 (−0.0032, 0.0037) | 0.0% (−0.3%, 0.4%) | |
| Family medicine | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| BB-COC-PC * Specialty | ||||
| Internal medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | −0.0468 (−0.1020, 0.0085) | −4.6% (−9.7%, 0.9%) | |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | 0.0640 (0.0094, 0.1186) | 6.6% (0.9%, 12.6%) | |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | 0.0174 (−0.0388, 0.0736) | 1.8% (−3.8%, 7.6%) | |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | −0.1665 (−0.2876, −0.0455) | −15.3% (−25.0%, −4.4%) | |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | −0.1453 (−0.2626, −0.0281) | −13.5% (−23.1%, −2.8%) | |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | −0.0963 (−0.2272, 0.0346) | −9.2% (−20.3%, 3.5%) | |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Family medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Family medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Family medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Family medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| BB-COC-PC * Payer | ||||
| Medicare | Percentile 40 to 60 | 0.0126 (0.0001, 0.0250) | 1.3% (0.0%, 2.5%) | |
| Medicare | Percentile 60 to 80 | −0.0102 (−0.0229, 0.0026) | −1.0% (−2.3%, 0.3%) | |
| Medicare | Percentile 80 to 100 | 0.0279 (0.0145, 0.0413) | 2.8% (1.5%, 4.2%) | |
| Medicare | Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Medicaid | Percentile 40 to 60 | 0.0149 (−0.0013, 0.0312) | 1.5% (−0.1%, 3.2%) | |
| Medicaid | Percentile 60 to 80 | 0.0850 (0.0686, 0.1013) | 8.9% (7.1%, 10.7%) | |
| Medicaid | Percentile 80 to 100 | 0.0169 (0.0003, 0.0335) | 1.7% (0.0%, 3.4%) | |
| Medicaid | Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Commercial | Percentile 40 to 60 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Commercial | Percentile 60 to 80 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Commercial | Percentile 80 to 100 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| Commercial | Percentile 0 to 40 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| BB-COC-PC * Age | ||||
| Percentile 40 to 60 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | −0.0173 (−0.0207, −0.0139) | −1.7% (−2.1%, −1.4%) | |
| Percentile 60 to 80 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | −0.0142 (−0.0178, −0.0105) | −1.4% (−1.8%, −1.0%) | |
| Percentile 80 to 100 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | −0.0285 (−0.0324, −0.0245) | −2.8% (−3.2%, −2.4%) | |
| Percentile 0 to 40 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| BB-COC-PC * MARA | ||||
| Percentile 40 to 60 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0080 (0.0067, 0.0094) | 0.8% (0.7%, 0.9%) | |
| Percentile 60 to 80 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0087 (0.0073, 0.0102) | 0.9% (0.7%, 1.0%) | |
| Percentile 80 to 100 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0102 (0.0087, 0.0118) | 1.0% (0.9%, 1.2%) | |
| Percentile 0 to 40 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| BB-COC-PC * CCI | ||||
| Percentile 40 to 60 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0116 (−0.0142, −0.0090) | −1.2% (−1.4%, −0.9%) | |
| Percentile 60 to 80 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0145 (−0.0173, −0.0117) | −1.4% (−1.7%, −1.2%) | |
| Percentile 80 to 100 | CCI Centered at 0, UnitIncrease of 1 | −0.0132 (−0.0162, −0.0101) | −1.3% (−1.6%, −1.0%) | |
| Percentile 0 to 40 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE | |
| BB-COC-PC * Speciality * Age | ||||
| Internal medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | 0.0159 (0.0102, 0.0215) | 1.6% (1.0%, 2.2%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | −0.0009 (−0.0066, 0.0048) | −0.1% (−0.7%, 0.5%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | 0.0077 (0.0018, 0.0136) | 0.8% (0.2%, 1.4%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | −0.0120 (−0.0316, 0.0076) | −1.2% (−3.1%, 0.8%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | 0.0028 (−0.0148, 0.0204) | 0.3% (−1.5%, 2.1%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | 0.0576 (0.0362, 0.0790) | 5.9% (3.7%, 8.2%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | Age Centered at 53, Unit Increase of 10 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| BB-COC-PC * MARA * Speciality | ||||
| Internal medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0039 (−0.0064, −0.0014) | −0.4% (−0.6%, −0.1%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0019 (−0.0043, 0.0006) | −0.2% (−0.4%, 0.1%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0075 (−0.0100, −0.0049) | −0.7% (−1.0%, −0.5%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0002 (−0.0044, 0.0040) | −0.0% (−0.4%, 0.4%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0010 (−0.0047, 0.0027) | −0.1% (−0.5%, 0.3%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0144 (−0.0182, −0.0106) | −1.4% (−1.8%, −1.1%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | MARA Centered at 1, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| BB-COC-PC * CCI * Speciality | ||||
| Internal medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0058 (−0.0105, −0.0011) | −0.6% (−1.0%, −0.1%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0136 (−0.0182, −0.0091) | −1.4% (−1.8%, −0.9%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | −0.0032 (−0.0080, 0.0016) | −0.3% (−0.8%, 0.2%) |
| Internal medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0110 (0.0002, 0.0217) | 1.1% (0.0%, 2.2%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0053 (−0.0048, 0.0154) | 0.5% (−0.5%, 1.6%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | 0.0113 (0.0008, 0.0217) | 1.1% (0.1%, 2.2%) |
| Pediatric medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 40 to 60 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 60 to 80 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 80 to 100 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
| Family medicine | Percentile 0 to 40 | CCI Centered at 0, Unit Increase of 1 | REFERENCE | REFERENCE |
Abbreviations: SDI, social deprivation index; CCI, Charlson’s comorbidity index; MARA, Milliman advanced risk adjusters; CI, confidence interval.