Derivation group | Validation group | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Flu/Total (%) | LR | In Group (%) | Flu/Total (%) | LR | In Group (%) | |
LASSO score | ||||||
Low | 0/5 (0.0) | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0/0 (NA) | NA | 0.0 |
Moderate | 20/77 (26.0) | 0.3 | 44.3 | 16/34 (47.1) | 0.8 | 45.3 |
High | 68/92 (73.9) | 2.8 | 52.9 | 23/41 (56.1) | 1.2 | 54.7 |
Conditional inference tree (manual) | ||||||
Low | 1/32 (3.1) | 0.0 | 18.4 | 5/12 (41.7) | 0.7 | 15.8 |
Moderate | 6/25 (24.0) | 0.3 | 14.4 | 6/14 (42.9) | 0.7 | 18.4 |
High | 81/117 (69.2) | 2.2 | 67.2 | 28/50 (56.0) | 1.2 | 65.8 |
Naive Bayes classifier | ||||||
Low | 0/0 (NA) | NA | 0.0 | 0/0 (NA) | NA | 0.0 |
Moderate | 0/7 (0.0) | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0/4 (0.0) | 0.0 | 5.3 |
High | 88/167 (52.7) | 1.1 | 96.0 | 39/72 (54.2) | 1.1 | 94.7 |
Abbreviations: LASSO, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator; LR, stratum-specific likelihood ratio.
Notes: The models were trained using the derivation set of clinician-reported symptom data, and evaluated on both the derivation and validation sets separately. We obtained quantitative risk predictions for each individual from the models, and assigned individuals with a risk less than 10% to the low risk group, individuals with a risk between 10% and 50% to the moderate risk group, and individuals with a risk greater than 50% to the high risk group.