Classification Accuracy of 3 Novel Risk Scores and 2 Externally Derived Risk Scores in the Early Derivation, Late Validation, and Omicron Cohorts
| Early Derivation Cohort | Late Validation Cohort | Omicron Cohort | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Collection: 20 March 2020–28 February 2021 | Data Collection: 1 March 2021–30 September 2021 | Data Collection: 20 December 2021–7 January 2022 | |
| Risk Score (Points) | n Hospitalized/Total (%) | n Hospitalized/Total (%) | n Hospitalized/Total (%) |
| Overall | 233/5839 (4.0%) | 157/3775 (4.2%) | 74/6138 (1.2%)* |
| Model A risk score | |||
| Low (0) | 9/2660 (0.34%) | 15/1849 (0.81%) | 7/3144 (0.22%) |
| Moderate (1.0 – 2.5) | 105/2600 (4.0%) | 84/1623 (5.2%) | 34/2613 (1.3%) |
| High (≥ 3.0) | 120/583 (20.6%) | 70/334 (21.0%) | 33/381 (8.7%) |
| Model B risk score | |||
| Low (0 – 1.0) | 15/3188 (0.47%) | 19/2135 (0.89%) | 7/1724 (0.41%) |
| Moderate (1.5 – 3.5) | 96/2035 (4.7%) | 80/1320 (6.1%) | 22/1302 (1.7%) |
| High (≥ 4.0) | 123/620 (19.8%) | 70/351 (19.9%) | 35/327 (10.7%) |
| Model C risk score | |||
| Low (0 – 1.0) | 14/3172 (0.44%) | 18/2119 (0.85%) | 7/1823 (0.38%) |
| Moderate (1.5-3.5) | 98/2043 (4.8%) | 82/1328 (6.2%) | 20/1478 (1.4%) |
| High (≥ 4.0) | 131/637 (20.6%) | 69/359 (19.2%) | 42/445 (9.4%) |
| Model D risk score | |||
| Low (0 – 1.0) | 10/3205 (0.33%) | 16/2020 (0.79%) | 5/2106 (0.24%) |
| Moderate (1.5- 4.5) | 106/2349 (4.5%) | 79/1481 (5.3%) | 28/2026 (1.4%) |
| High (≥ 5.0) | 117/465 (25.2%) | 74/305 (24.3%) | 50/356 (14.0%) |
| COVID-NoLab risk score | |||
| Low (0 to 1) | 142/3544 (4.0%) | 70/2488 (2.8%) | 12/2081 (0.6%) |
| Moderate (2 to 5) | 259/2254 (11.5%) | 132/1302 (10.1%) | 45/1253 (3.6%) |
| High (≥ 6) | 29/45 (64.4%) | 9/16 (56.3%) | 7/19 (36.8%) |
| OutCoV risk score | |||
| Low (< 3) | 163/4340 (3.8%) | 81/2929 (2.8%) | 18/2534 (0.71%) |
| Moderate (3.0 – 5.0) | 220/1392 (15.8%) | 112/818 (13.7%) | 32/769 (4.2%) |
| High (≥ 5.5) | 47/111 (42.3%) | 18/59 (30.5%) | 14/50 (28.0%) |
↵Notes: * For the subset with measured temperature available used for risk scores B-D, there were 64 hospitalizations out of 3353 outpatients (1.9%).