Selected Clinical Prediction Rules for COVID-19 Prognosis
| Study | Performance in Original Study | Performance in 5 US Sites |
|---|---|---|
| Lu et al., 20209 | Low risk: 0% | Low risk: 2/108 (1.8%) |
| Moderate risk: 6% | Moderate risk: 24/359 (6.7%) | |
| High risk: 33% | High risk: 87/324 (26.9%) | |
| Xie et al., 202010 | AUROCC (derivation) = 0.893 | AUROCC = 0.7981 |
| AUROCC (test) = 0.980 | Hosmer–Lemeshow P = .23 | |
| Yan et al., 202011 | Low risk: 3/189 (1.6%) | Low risk: 10/243 (4.1%) |
| High risk: 157/162 (96.9%) | High risk: 85/374 (22.7%) |
AUROCC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
See appendix for details regarding calculation of risk scores.