Multivariable Models in Prediction of Incident Frequent Knee Pain and Internal Validation (Calibration and Discrimination) of the Risk Prediction Models
| Selected Predictors | Basic Model | Backward Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95% CI) | P Value | OR (95% CI) | P Value | |
| Age (years) | 1.07 (0.98–1.16) | .16 | 1.15 (1.03–1.28) | .02 |
| BMI (kg/m2) | 1.09 (1.01–1.17) | .02 | 1.13 (1.04–1.23) | .004 |
| Mild knee symptoms* | 1.74 (0.88–3.44) | .12 | ||
| Knee problems while climbing stairs† | 2.06 (1.03–4.12) | .04 | ||
| Morning stiffness‡ | 3.03 (1.17–7.81) | .02 | ||
| Postmenopausal status | 0.57 (0.28–1.18) | .13 | ||
| Physically demanding work§ | 2.05 (0.72–5.83) | .18 | ||
| AUC of the model | 0.63 (0.55–0.71) | 0.71 (0.63–0.78) | ||
| Calibration: Hosmer-Lemeshow P value | .72 | .93 | ||
| Variance explained (Nagelkerke), % | 4.6 | 21.0 | ||
AUC, area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic; BMI, body mass index; CI, confidential interval; OR, odds ratio.
Bold indicates P < .05.
↵* Pain in or around the knee within the last 12 months.
↵† Defined with the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) on physical functioning.
↵‡ Defined with the KOOS on stiffness.
↵§ Doing heavy physical work “quite often” or “(almost) always”.