@article {Saver510, author = {Barry G. Saver and Kathleen M. Mazor and J. Lee Hargraves and Marcela Hayes}, title = {Inaccurate Risk Perceptions and Individualized Risk Estimates by Patients with Type 2 Diabetes}, volume = {27}, number = {4}, pages = {510--519}, year = {2014}, doi = {10.3122/jabfm.2014.04.140058}, publisher = {The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine}, abstract = {Background: We evaluated how diabetic patients understand and respond to the presentation of personalized risk information. Methods: This was a mixed methods study involving 56 patients with type 2 diabetes and at least 1 additional cardiovascular risk factor. We assessed participants{\textquoteright} perceptions of diabetes-related risks; asked them to rank order 6 events (death, heart attack, stroke, blindness, amputation, and kidney failure) by likelihood of occurrence in a specified time frame; presented them with personalized risk estimates; and asked them to re-rank the risks. The final 18 participants were tested to verify understanding before re-ranking risks. Qualitative analysis of interview transcripts identified themes and concepts underlying participants{\textquoteright} ways of perceiving and reacting to risk. Results: While mortality was the most likely outcome for almost all participants, nearly all estimated it to be least likely; only 28\% adjusted their mortality rankings to match model predictions. Some did not understand the risk information: only two thirds of those asked could rank risks according to the information presented. Risk perceptions were influenced by factors including {\textquotedblleft}knowing myself,{\textquotedblright} powerful anecdotes, and belief that a {\textquotedblleft}warning shot{\textquotedblright} would occur before death. Conclusions: Personalized risk estimates, particularly about mortality, had limited salience. Some participants could not understand the information, despite presentation in ways suggested by previous research.}, issn = {1557-2625}, URL = {https://www.jabfm.org/content/27/4/510}, eprint = {https://www.jabfm.org/content/27/4/510.full.pdf}, journal = {The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine} }